Everyyear,about10millionofthe150millionworkersintheEuropeanCommunityareaffectedbyincidents,”accidents”ordiseasesatwork.

AccordingtoUKofficialstatistics,everyyearabout2000livesarelostthroughoccupationaldiseaseorinjury,about20,000majorindustrialinjuriesoccur(e.g.skullfracture,lossofsight)andthereareabout200,000injuriesresultinginaworkdisabilityof3daysormore.

1There'sadimmerswitchinsidethesunthatcausesitsbrightnesstoriseandfallontimescalesofaround100,000years-exactlythesameperiodasbetweeniceagesonEarth.Sosaysaphysicistwhohascreatedacomputermodelofourstar'score.

2RobertEhrlichofGeorgeMasonUniversityinFairfax,Virginia,modelledtheeffectoftemperaturefluctuationsinthesun'sinterior.Accordingtothestandardview,thetemperatureofthesun'scoreisheldconstantbytheopposingpressuresofgravityandnuclearfusion.However,Ehrlichbelievedthatslightvariationsshouldbepossible.

3HetookashisstartingpointtheworkofAttilaGrandpierreoftheKonkolyObservatoryoftheHungarianAcademyofSciences.In2005,Grandpierreandacollaborator,Gáborágoston,calculatedthatmagneticfieldsinthesun'scorecouldproducesmallinstabilitiesinthesolarplasma.Theseinstabilitieswouldinducelocalisedoscillationsintemperature.

4Ehrlich'smodelshowsthatwhilstmostoftheseoscillationscanceleachotherout,somereinforceoneanotherandbecomelong-livedtemperaturevariations.Thefavouredfrequenciesallowthesun'scoretemperaturetooscillatearounditsaveragetemperatureof13.6millionkelvinincycleslastingeither100,000or41,000years.Ehrlichsaysthatrandominteractionswithinthesun'smagneticfieldcouldflipthefluctuationsfromonecyclelengthtotheother.

5ThesetwotimescalesareinstantlyrecognisabletoanyonefamiliarwithEarth'siceages:forthepastmillionyears,iceageshaveoccurredroughlyevery100,000years.Beforethat,theyoccurredroughlyevery41,000years.

6MostscientistsbelievethattheiceagesaretheresultofsubtlechangesinEarth'sorbit,knownastheMilankovitchcycles.OnesuchcycledescribesthewayEarth'sorbitgraduallychangesshapefromacircletoaslightellipseandbackagainroughlyevery100,000years.ThetheorysaysthisalterstheamountofsolarradiationthatEarthreceives,triggeringtheiceages.However,apersistentproblemwiththistheoryhasbeenitsinabilitytoexplainwhytheiceageschangedfrequencyamillionyearsago.

7"InMilankovitch,thereiscertainlynogoodideawhythefrequencyshouldchangefromonetoanother,"saysNeilEdwards,aclimatologistattheOpenUniversityinMiltonKeynes,UK.NoristhetransitionproblemtheonlyonetheMilankovitchtheoryfaces.EhrlichandothercriticsclaimthatthetemperaturevariationscausedbyMilankovitchcyclesaresimplynotbigenoughtodriveiceages.

8However,EdwardsbelievesthesmallchangesinsolarheatingproducedbyMilankovitchcyclesarethenamplifiedbyfeedbackmechanismsonEarth.Forexample,ifseaicebeginstoformbecauseofaslightcooling,carbondioxidethatwouldotherwisehavefounditswayintotheatmosphereaspartofthecarboncycleislockedintotheice.ThatweakensthegreenhouseeffectandEarthgrowsevencolder.

9AccordingtoEdwards,thereisnolackofsuchmechanisms."Ifyouaddtheireffectstogether,thereismorethanenoughfeedbacktomakeMilankovitchwork,"hesays."Theproblemnowisidentifyingwhichmechanismsareatwork."ThisiswhyscientistslikeEdwardsarenotyetreadytogiveuponthecurrenttheory."Milankovitchcyclesgiveusiceagesroughlywhenweobservethemtohappen.Wecancalculatewhereweareinthecycleandcompareitwithobservation,"hesays."Ican'tseeanywayoftesting[Ehrlich's]ideatoseewhereweareinthetemperatureoscillation."

10Ehrlichconcedesthis."Ifthereisawaytotestthistheoryonthesun,Ican'tthinkofonethatispractical,"hesays.That'sbecausevariationover41,000to100,000yearsistoogradualtobeobserved.However,theremaybeawaytotestitinotherstars:reddwarfs.Theircoresaremuchsmallerthanthatofthesun,andsoEhrlichbelievesthattheoscillationperiodscouldbeshortenoughtobeobserved.Hehasyettocalculatethepreciseperiodortheextentofvariationinbrightnesstobeexpected.

11NigelWeiss,asolarphysicistattheUniversityofCambridge,isfarfromconvinced.HedescribesEhrlich'sclaimsas"utterlyimplausible".EhrlichcountersthatWeiss'sopinionisbasedonthestandardsolarmodel,whichfailstotakeintoaccountthemagneticinstabilitiesthatcausethetemperaturefluctuations.

Questions1-4

CompleteeachofthefollowingstatementswithOneorTwonamesofthescientistsfromtheboxbelow.

WritetheappropriatelettersA-Einboxes1-4onyouranswersheet.

A.AttilaGrandpierre

B.Gáborágoston

C.NeilEdwards

D.NigelWeiss

E.RobertEhrlich

1....claimsthereadimmerswitchinsidethesunthatcausesitsbrightnesstoriseandfallinperiodsaslongasthosebetweeniceagesonEarth.

2....calculatedthattheinternalsolarmagneticfieldscouldproduceinstabilitiesinthesolarplasma.

3....holdsthatMilankovitchcyclescaninducechangesinsolarheatingonEarthandthechangesareamplifiedonEarth.

4....doesn'tbelieveinEhrlich'sviewpointsatall.

Questions5-9

Dothefollowingstatementsagreewiththeinformationgiveninthereadingpassage?

Inboxes5-9onyouranswersheetwrite

TRUEifthestatementistrueaccordingtothepassage

FALSEifthestatementisfalseaccordingtothepassage

NOTGIVENiftheinformationisnotgiveninthepassage

5.Theiceageschangedfrequencyfrom100,000to41,000yearsamillionyearsago.

6.ThesoleproblemthattheMilankovitchtheorycannotsolveistoexplainwhytheiceagefrequencyshouldshiftfromonetoanother.

7.Carbondioxidecanbelockedartificiallyintoseaicetoeliminatethegreenhouseeffect.

8.SomescientistsarenotreadytogiveuptheMilankovitchtheorythoughtheyhaven'tfiguredoutwhichmechanismsamplifythechangesinsolarheating.

9.BothEdwardsandEhrlichbelievethatthereisnopracticalwaytotestwhenthesolartemperatureoscillationbeginsandwhenends.

Questions10-14

Completethenotesbelow.

ChooseonesuitablewordfromtheReadingPassageaboveforeachanswer.

Writeyouranswersinboxes10-14onyouranswersheet.

Thestandardviewassumesthattheopposingpressuresofgravityandnuclearfusionsholdthetemperature...10...inthesun'sinterior,buttheslightchangesintheearth's...11...alterthetemperatureontheearthandcauseiceagesevery100,000years.ABritishscientist,however,challengesthisviewbyclaimingthattheinternalsolarmagnetic...12...caninducethetemperatureoscillationsinthesun'sinterior.Thesun'scoretemperatureoscillatesarounditsaveragetemperaturein...13...lastingeither100,000or41,000years.Andthe...14...interactionswithinthesun'smagneticfieldcouldflipthefluctuationsfromonecyclelengthtotheother,whichexplainswhytheiceageschangedfrequencyamillionyearsago.

Asianeconomieswillcontinuetoexpandrapidlyinthenexttwoyearsonthebackofforeigninvestments,exportsanddomesticdemand,butwillnotbefreeofworries,accordingtoarecentsecuritiescompanyeconomicreport.Massiveinfrastructurespending,thebenefitsofpastinvestmentsandderegulationandgrowingregionaltradewillpushalongregionalgrowth.

ThereporttippedChina’sgrossdomesticproducttogrowby9.5percentin1996and10.5percentin1997,andHongKong’stogrowby4.3and5.0percent.Singapore’srealGDPwasforecasttogrowby7.6and7.4percent,Malaysia’sby8.6and8.1percent,Thailand’sby8.8and8.4percent,Indonesia’sby7.3and7.1percentandPhilippines’by5.6and5.8percent.

“However,allisnotrosy,”cautionedthereport,whichlistedoverheatingastheregion’sbiggestchallengeintheshorttermandskilled-laborshortagesinthelongrun.

Itcitedstrainsfromrapidgrowththathadbeguntostretchcurrentaccountdeficitsandspurinflationinsomeregionaleconomies,whichcouldpreventtheircentralbanksfromloweringinterestrates.

“Thisimpliesthateconomicvulnerabilitytounexpectedshockswillremainhigh,”thereportsaid,forecastingafurthertighteningofmonetarypolicyincountriessuchasthePhilippinesandMalaysia,andnosignificanteasinginThailand,IndonesiaandChina.

CrosbySecuritiesalsocitedmassivenewinvestmentprogramsgeneratedbydemandsoninfrastructuresuchaspower,telecommunicationsandtransportwhichhadfuelledover-heating.

ItsaidAsiawouldalsofaceabiggerchallengefromnewlyderegulatingeconomiesinEasternEuropewhichofferedlowercostsandbetter-educatedworkerstoforeigninvestors.

Asia’smainforeigninvestorsshould,however,continuetoexpandtheirpresenceintheregion,thesecuritieshousesaid,notingnewtrendsofintra-Asianinvestment.

Singaporeisshiftingitslowervalue-addeddiscdriveandelectronicsindustrytoMalaysia,whichinturnismovingsomeofitsgarment-makingandconsumerelectronicsmanufacturingtoIndonesiaandThailand.Thailand,MalaysiaandSingaporeareincreasinglyinvestinginVietNam,MyanmarandLaos.

“Asiawillbenefitfromthistrendinseveralways,”thereportsaid.

()1Asiaeconomywillcontinuetogrowbecauseof_____________.

A.foreigninvestmentB.demandsinAsiancountries.

C.exportD.alloftheabove

()2Inthenext2years,thehighesteconomicgrowthwillappearin____________.

A.SingaporeB.Thailand

C.HongKongD.China

()3Yearslater,theprobleminAsianeconomymaybe_________________.

A.toolittleinvestmentB.toomuchinvestment

C.notenoughqualifiedlaborsD.monetaryinstability

()4Accordingtothisreport,economicchangesinEastEuropeare___________.

A.harmfulB.challenging

C.helpfulD.useless

()5ThereportisabouttheprospectofAsianeconomy.

A.optimisticB.pessimistic

C.moreoptimisticthanpessimisticD.morepessimisticthanoptimistic

Shonaneedstodofurtherresearchinorderto____.